A break-even worksheet for your first paid expertise product

Calculate two break-even points: the sales needed to recover cash spending, and the sales needed to recover that spending plus a value for your time. Keep the period, offer, and cost assumptions consistent. Neither number predicts how many readers will buy.

For an author turning a method into a paid resource, the difference can be substantial. Editing examples at night does not produce an invoice, but it still consumes time you could spend writing, teaching, or resting.

This worksheet uses a single one-time purchase over a defined launch period. All example figures are fictional USD assumptions, not market prices, platform fees, or tax guidance.

Write one sentence before entering numbers:

This model covers one purchase of a project-planning resource, including the stated support, over the first ninety days of launch.

That is the fictional example used below. A subscription would need a different unit, such as one paid month, and a separate account of repeat payments. Do not count a subscriber as twelve payments unless that assumption is justified.

The basic formula is fixed costs divided by price less variable cost per unit. The U.S. Small Business Administration presents this standard break-even relationship. Our worksheet extends the planning exercise by showing author time separately. SBA explanation

Copy this table and replace every example input with your own dated estimate or verified charge.

The reserve models full refunds totaling five percent of gross sales. For simplicity, the example conservatively retains all original processing fees and delivery/support costs even on refunded purchases. Your real processor's rules may differ. Check them rather than subtracting fees twice or assuming they are returned.

Cash paid to a contractor belongs in cash costs. Your own unpaid work belongs in the separate time calculation. If you already pay yourself for those same hours within the cash budget, do not count them again.

For each original purchase:

Cash contribution = price − refund reserve − percentage fees − fixed payment fee − other delivery costs.

The example gives:

$60 − $3 − $6 − $1 − $2 = $48.

Fixed cash spending is $600 + $180 = $780. Dividing $780 by $48 gives 16.25. Round up: 17 original purchases cover the modeled cash spending on an expected-reserve basis.

That wording matters. Actual refunds occur in whole transactions and may arrive later. Seventeen purchases with an unexpectedly high number of refunds may not recover the cash spent.

Six minutes of support valued at $50 per hour adds 6 ÷ 60 × $50 = $5 per purchase. Contribution after valuing support time is therefore $48 − $5 = $43.

Fixed author work is (30 + 6) × $50 = $1,800. Combined with $780 cash spending, the time-adjusted investment is $2,580.

$2,580 ÷ $43 = 60 purchases.

The same offer therefore has a modeled cash break-even of seventeen purchases and a time-adjusted break-even of sixty. Calling either simply “profit” would conceal a material distinction.

The pressure on expert time is visible in an adjacent consulting discussion. u/supergoddess7 wrote:

“I provide high level service that makes it difficult for me to have more than 2 clients at a time.”

This is a consultant's self-reported capacity problem, not evidence about author-product support. It is a useful reminder to count personal delivery rather than assume your expertise becomes costless when packaged digitally. Original comment

Change one assumption at a time, then test a combined difficult case.

All rows keep the same fixed spending and thirty-six fixed author hours. Extra support changes the time-adjusted result but does not change cash contribution because this example assumes the author handles it without an additional cash wage.

If you hire someone to provide support, move the applicable cost into the cash model. If volume requires a higher hosting plan or more administration, change those inputs too. A simple linear model applies only while its cost assumptions remain reasonable.

Suppose the base scenario receives forty purchases. That is an illustration, not a forecast. Cash contribution would be 40 × $48 = $1,920, leaving $1,140 after modeled cash spending. After valuing variable and fixed author work, the result becomes 40 × $43 − $2,580 = −$860.

You might still choose to continue because you value the learning or expect future purchases. State that choice explicitly. Cash recovery and adequate compensation for your time are different goals.

In an author discussion about recovering book costs, u/TCSassy cautioned:

“There's zero way to tell if your book is going to sell or how much you'll make in a day/week/month/year based on what anybody else's experience was.”

The wording is emphatic personal advice in a publishing thread. The relevant point for this worksheet is narrower: another author's result cannot fill your sales forecast. Original comment

Date each version. Record actual purchases, refunds, fees, delivery spending and support time beside the original assumptions. Explain changes rather than silently replacing disappointing estimates.

This simplified example excludes taxes, currency changes, chargebacks, additional acquisition spending and work beyond the stated period. Add applicable items before making a commitment. It also says nothing about whether the proposed output is useful: test the skill's behavior separately.

Your decision note should state the modeled break-even, the largest uncertain cost, the spending limit, and when you will review actual results. That is more actionable than a single optimistic revenue target.

If you want to discuss publishing your expertise as a paid skill, visit Skillfully and choose Book onboarding. Bring the reader task and your completed assumptions sheet.